Academic warns of flooding not seen in living memory
3:03am Wednesday 7th May 2008
FLOODS on a scale not seen in living memory will repeatedly hit the region in coming years, an expert has warned.
And a "flood-poor" period lasting 50 years has made us less capable of coping with the catastrophic consequences.
The forecast was made by a Durham University academic, who warned of the onset of monsoon Britain.
Professor Stuart Lane has discovered current flood predictions under-estimate the havoc likely to be caused, because they are based on the past 40 years - a period of relatively dry and calm weather.
Before the middle of the last century, flooding on a national scale was much more commonplace, Prof Lane said.
"We've almost certainly got to get used to the amount of flooding that we have not seen in living memory," he said.
While central and southern England is likely suffer most, communities in the Tees and Tyne valleys could also face widespread problems.
"To make things worse, lifestyle changes in the past 40 years mean we are much more vulnerable to flooding," Prof Lane said.
He also said that more houses had been built on flood plains and people owned more items easily damaged by water, such as electronics, carpets and cars.
"We are now having to learn to live with levels of flooding that are beyond most people's living memory, something that most of us have forgotten how to do.
"For many people, floods are going to be a surprise," he said.
Prof Lane said flooding could not be prevented, but more must be done to prepare vulnerable areas for the worst.
"We can't stop flooding. That's the table cloth on which our dinner is going to be laid out. What we don't give enough attention to is management of vulnerability. How do we work with people to cope better?"
Earlier this year, the Environment Agency predicted sea levels would rise by 2.5mm every year until 2025, and by 7mm every year between 2025 and 2055.
Prof Lane's research is funded by the Willis Research Network, a collaboration between universities worldwide and the insurance industry, and is published in the academic journal Geography.